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PDP-10 Archives
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decus_20tap1_198111
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decus/20-0020/fcstst.tuk
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1 PRINT "THIS PROGRAM SIMULATES A TIME SERIES AND STORES ITS OUTPUT"
2 PRINT " IN TWO FILES:MON AND YEAR."
3 PRINT
4 PRINT
5 RANDOMIZE
10 DIM S(12),X(200),Z(200)
20 FILES MON;YEAR
42 SCRATCH #1
44 SCRATCH #2
45 PRINT "DO YOU WANT SEASONALS";
46 INPUT A$
47 IF A$ = "NO" THEN 152
48 PRINT
49 PRINT
50 PRINT "MONTH","SEASONAL INDEX"
90 LET V=W=0
100 FOR I = 1 TO 12
105 LET S = RND*.3-.15
110 LET S = INT(100*S)/100
120 LET S(I) = 1+S
122 LET V = V+S
125 IF I<12 THEN 140
130 LET S(I) = S(I)-V
140 PRINT I,S(I)
145 LET W = W+S(I)
150 NEXT I
151 GO TO 160
152 FOR I = 1 TO 12
153 LET S(I) = 1
154 NEXT I
155 GO TO 171
160 PRINT
170 PRINT "TOTAL",W
171 PRINT
172 PRINT
173 PRINT "ENTER FIGURES FOR:"
174 PRINT " VALUE IN MONTH 0";
175 INPUT A
176 PRINT " GROWTH IN EACH MONTH";
177 INPUT B
178 PRINT " STANDARD DEVIATION OF RANDOM TERM";
179 INPUT U1
180 PRINT " NUMBER OF YEARS TO BE GENERATED";
181 INPUT N1
183 PRINT
184 PRINT "DO YOU WANT A PRINT OUT OF DATA";
185 INPUT A$
186 IF A$="NO" THEN 210
187 PRINT
188 PRINT
190 PRINT "PERIOD","OBSERVATION"
210 LET J = 1
220 FOR Y = 1 TO N1
222 LET Z(Y) = 0
230 FOR I = 1 TO 12
235 LET U = ((-2*LOG(RND))^.5)*COS(6.283*(RND))
237 LET U = U*U1
240 LET X(J) = (A+B*J)*S(I)+U
242 IF A$="NO" THEN 255
250 PRINT J,X(J)
255 WRITE #1,X(J);
257 LET Z(Y) = Z(Y)+X(J)
260 LET J = J+1
270 NEXT I
275 WRITE #2,Z(Y)
280 NEXT Y
99999 END